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Homebloggerhk 按揭 買樓 理財 基金 股票


三個問題令諗sir收皮(collect skin)的個案 #1383

Hello 諗 Sir 你好,

超級窮中產一名, 一直想盡早財務自由, 所以留意咗你個blog 好耐,亦有拜讀你出既書,獲益良多.但始終是紙上知識,加上現在美國央行又話加息縮表,所以真正實踐時還是想先直接請教諗sir!

 

小女今年32歲, 月入$43k,剛剛結咗婚, 丈夫同齡, 月入$28k, 大約資產如下:

– 現金約$600k (每月儲蓄 約$15k)

– 股票基金約$300k

– 自住樓 (outstanding loan $3.6m)

 

現在處於人生交叉點, 希望諗sir 能指點迷津!

2年前買咗樓$6.3M 自住, 現在估值$7.2m, 正掙扎是否加按套現作投資用途? 如果加按, 應怎樣運用以盡快達到財務自由?

 

  1. 有感樓市有向下趨勢, 現在加按是否風險太大 (借60%)? 還是應趁高價套現?

兩人借貸力有$9.19m <($28k+$43k)/10000*0.5*2.59>, 如果加按會用掉借貸力47%.

 

  1. 如果加按, 可以有額外$770k現金,加上手上現金, 大約有$1.3m, 心中投資方案如下:
  2. 買英國樓收租 – 買唔起香港樓,打算衝出香港, 目標樓價是180k鎊以下, 但這樣會令我倆用掉借貸力升至58-60%
  3. 買債基 – 但現在央行加息又放風縮表, 對債市應該是壞影響? 這樣的環境下, 操作債基應該更困難?風險更高? 另外應全數或只用部分資金買?

 

萬分感激!

迷途羔羊

 

http://www.espacomahara.com.br/cream/1240.html answer:

Q: 加息縮表對債之影響

尋晚議息耶倫又話要提早縮表,今日港股就穿27000。究竟係咪就咁睇息口升? 表會縮就對股債有負面影響咁簡單?

 

縮表只屬緊縮政策之一種,而緊縮在2013年收水已開始。看2016-17年,緊縮對債沒影響,至少是對公司債影響不大。見下圖為比公司債更垃圾的垃圾債ETF名叫JNK在2016至17之走勢,按圖示2016年7月至今一年升2.61%,未計佢會派息。那看倌認為在過去一年又話加息又話縮表,究竟債有冇跌到?

1C

至於點解,就唔係免費文章講解。先攪清加減息,同投資人能否安穩收息無關連。至於筆者$98既書擺明係無講實行的,原因是書本印左之後無得改,但銷售人員為求賺佣出的虛招每日都變,不少更是睇完筆者本BLOG先變,故筆者書本無講實行,只係勾劃大概。筆者功力有限,寫唔到本書內容值$198蚊或成萬蚊,抱歉。

 

是讀者自己都識講係「窮中產」,咁有否了解窮中產的特徵是人工高而現金少呢? 我明白此情況筆者有份搞出黎,我同意要自我檢討。至於讀者人工係咪高就見仁見智,不評論。不過佢將樓趁樓市高行一拆二再轉按爆八成就梗的了,希望把按到資金加大至120萬。

 

Q:「加按是否風險大」

答:就要睇樓市大跌後銀行會否輕易call打工仔業主的loan。按2003年經驗,係唔會。但之後會唔會一樣,唔保證。如果擔心就唔好做,照而家每月儲15k儲到60歲,應多了15000*360 = 540萬係手。筆者樂觀去諗到時銀紙希望只比而家貶值一倍,咁等於讀者今日即退休而手揸270萬兩條友傍身的情況。

 

Q: 另外「為左要買得起樓,所以就唔買香港樓衝出英國?」

答: 咁即係筆者為左要買到電話,所以唔買iPHONE出部舊版華為(Huawei)*啦? 先解解為什麼要買樓? 樓是一項具高抵押性,拉長30年還而息較低的投資物,其他金股匯都無比特性。若有人FULL PAY英國買樓? 或用外國人身份買樓承造低成數按揭,那就不是浪費了買樓之原意? 伸延閱讀: http://homebloggerhk.com/68094/  (30年按揭是全世界最好工具? #1292

)

 

 

*明白華為(Huawei)而家是好勁,衝出全球。小弟絕無看輕中國人之意,我睇到AC Milan的中國球迷,我知道中國人”So rich”。

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