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Homebloggerhk 按揭 買樓 理財 基金 股票


【聶SIR】超購逾千倍,買入化算嗎? (2017/10/16)

超購逾千倍,買入化算嗎?

 

今日 (10月16日) 是新股上市爭妍鬥豔的日子,分別有一隻主板股份和四隻創業板股份上市,分別是眾誠能源 (2337)、高萌科技 (8065)、永勤集團控股 (8275)、舍圖控股 (8392) 和飛霓控股 (8480)。雖有多隻股份上市,理應會攤薄流入每隻股份的資金,但從招股結果來看卻未見有上述情況出現,五隻都能觸發配售部分回撥機制啟動,並且公開發售部分佔招股規模均不少於四成。

 

 

招股銷情相對股價表現

銷情稍遜的已要數眾誠能源,認購率也超過59倍,再數是永勤集團控股和舍圖控股分別超過82和83倍,接著是認購率超過162倍的飛霓控股,還有銷情最好的高萌科技,認購率竟達1,069倍,是今年第二高認購倍數的股份,暫列第一和第三位的分別是3月8日上市的美高域 (1985) 錄得1,178倍,以及5月15日上市的OKURA HOLDINGS (1655) 錄得1,018倍。然而,認購反映跟上市後股價表現關連性不大,再看上述的美高域和OKURA HOLDINGS,招股價介乎1.20至1.46元,以及0.90至1.20元,均以上限價上市,較開市價分別為3.89和1.38元,升幅分別是1.66倍和15.00%,前者明顯較高,以當時一手中籤率為50%計算,這批認購者取得上述的1.66倍利潤的機會是1/2,最終當日更收報4.00元,回報率擴大至1.74倍。不過若是上市後才進場,假設買入價就是上市首日開市價3.89元,即或與上市後的高位4.48元比較,賬面僅賺約15%。至於OKURA HOLDINGS,若以上市價和首日開市價,或是首日開市價和上市後高位比較,回報率也不理想,分別賺15.00%和23.91%。

 

 

分析公開發售貨量分佈

回看高萌科技,於上周五 (10月13日) 開市前發佈的招股結果顯示,公開發售部分收到20,026份有效申請,合共認購約106.87億股,以原定配額1,000萬股計出認購率為1,069倍,因已超過100倍,令配額上調至5,000萬股。但筆者想指出認購500萬股或以上只有985份有效申請,佔總體20,026份的4.92%,卻合共認購82.06億股,佔比為76.79%,而以招股價上限0.72元計算,認購金額最少也要360萬元,即或考慮到可用九成孖展,仍要先付上36萬元,反映屬有心人認購申請機會大,目的是要營造招股銷情極佳的假象,以及令大量招股配額可進到公開發售部分,視為要盡量派貨給散戶的線索。不過這種手法也令有心人要大量收貨,上述那985份申請合共獲發2,943.5萬股,佔公開發售配額近59%。

 

 

上市首日進場前應三思

再看配售部分,首25名承配人獲發3,575.5萬股,當中最少持份者也超過50萬股,以上市價0.60元計算,涉資不少於30萬元,認為亦屬有心人持貨機會大,連同上述的公開發售部分的分析,即1,010名有心人,合計獲發6,519萬股,佔招股規模65.19%,因已高於六成,反映上市前貨源已被歸邊。參考上周五暗盤成交股數多達1,890萬股,相對成交金額1,670萬元,計出平均成交價為0.8836元,較上市價高逾47%,存在有心人離場的誘因。假設那1,890萬股全屬有心人沽貨,於上市首日仍有4,629萬股要釋出市場,佔有心人貨量約71%。普遍認為換手率為兩倍或以上反映有心人已離場,即今日開市初期若見成交量超過9,258萬股,可視為有心人已離場的線索,屆時恐怕上市首日股價出現高開低收機會大,散戶於上市首日進場屬高風險操作,進場前應三思。

 

 

 

聶Sir
【富途證券】證券分析師
筆者為證監會持牌人仕
於執筆時筆者或相關人士並未持有上述股份。

(以上純屬個人分享,並不代表本網站、筆者或其僱主之意見、立場、推薦、陳述、誘使、支持或安排,亦非任何投資建議或勸誘。讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出任何投資決定。)








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