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[潘家榮] 投資之道是順勢而為 (2017/08/15)

20170815

 

每逢跌市,很多人第一時間便是找原因去「解釋」,看看是甚麼原因導致股市急跌,再分析自己要不要走貨,不過我認為這樣做其實是多餘,若然股價急跌,而你又找不到是甚麼原因,難道便不用走貨嗎?甚麼原因跟本都不重要,最重要是市場有怎樣的方向,你又會作出怎樣的反應,無謂硬要跟市場方向作對,即是說不論你覺得日後北韓局勢會不會進一步惡化,也不要單憑你自己的估計而亂做投資決定,只要順勢而行便可以了。

 

 

經歷完上周連續兩天急跌,港股近日終於有個像樣的反彈,趁著北韓局勢沒有再進一步惡化,期指一開便已高開超過二百點,及後升勢仍能維持,最終更升近四百點收市,而且上升的股票有過千隻,而且升幅普遍都很不錯,一下子將氣氛扭轉了過來,恍似北韓危機已經沒有人理。

 

港股彈得這麼急,是否代表著大市已經跌完,我們又要重新買爆倉呢?我認為大家要這麼急便下決定,畢竟期指在短短兩個交易日內急跌近千點,現在彈回三百點亦只是小兒科,暫時只能當作超賣過後的一個股價修正而已。更何況歷史上每一次跌市,都不會一口氣地跌到底,中間總會有反彈,若然我們每一次見反彈便衝入市,很容易會白白浪費了我們的購買力。與其這樣憑感覺胡亂衝,升少少便追,跌一跌又斬,倒不如我們站後一點,緊跟策略,等待大市進一步確認轉好,那時才加貨也不遲。

 

策略上,上星期說過期指一旦失守27500之後,短線升勢已經逆轉,所以操作上會變得保守,只減貨而不加貨,除非期指重上27700點以上企穩才再重新看好,及後期指一度跌至26800的水平,若然繼續以27700作為分水嶺,似乎又真的有點遠。

 

有見及此,我會在較近的位置加多一條分水嶺,就是國期的10800水平,距離現價只有不夠一百點的距離,若然國期重上10800之上,初步可以看好一點,到時可以加多一點沒有跌穿7月28日低位的強勢股,並以上星期五的低位作為止蝕,不過若然國期連這個水平乜升不上,又何必急於再攻呢?

 

 

 

潘家榮
元大證券(香港)經紀業務部營業總監

20160314-個人照2

潘家榮
元大證券(香港)經紀業務部營業總監

(以上純屬個人分享,並不代表本網站、筆者或其僱主之意見、立場、推薦、陳述、誘使、支持或安排,亦非任何投資建議或勸誘。讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出任何投資決定。)




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