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看淡住宅地區呎價的因素 #1324

未命名

空置率絕對反映一區的樓市前景。空置單位增多不利樓市、減少則有利樓市。不少人只參考一年的空置率走勢去判定邊區跑輸定贏,惟筆者會參考空置率走勢作其中一項判斷樓市區份之標準。

 

2015年尾比2014年,離島區空置率大升4.8%,預期東涌區不少新樓落成難去消化。灣仔區不少人看好,惟現實情況肯定是東區比灣仔好。灣仔呎價貴但又不能反映在投資價值,加上空置率在2014至2015年有急升情況,同樣令人卻步。

 

元朗在過去幾年空置率比平均高一截的情況下,2015年回到3.8%水平。惟元朗、大埔、屯門都存在不少村屋、又或離譜至豬棚住人的「房屋」。對上述地區的業主影響顯而易見。加上入村後房屋究竟是有人定空置? 間格改成如何? 政府比較難在這幾區做得盡。所以2015年對元朗估計是首個供應高峰之後的舒緩位。要在當地用高價放租難去達成,而投資價值亦只焗限在某類型單位。

 

葵青雖空置率低但不幸佢跌入了「Exception」。貨櫃碼頭令該區規劃比他區有異。小心處理。

 

預期九龍城同荃灣區在下一份物業報告的供應數字會錄得大幅增長,我們期待行將發出的2017報告。另外供應量亦需細心察看,本文只利用其中一個因素去考量呎價走勢。








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