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【聶SIR】全公開發售招股的背後意圖 (2017/01/11)

20170111-A

 

 

上周五 (1月6日) 晚上收到讀者Henry的電郵提問:「聶sir你好!小弟已認購新股 Купить Шишки в Похвистнево 煜榮集團 (1536)。請問上市後股價走勢會被看好嗎?應該短線還是可中線持有呢?上市後有可能跌破招股價嗎?此股以全公開發售方式招股,是少有的安排,為何要這樣做呢?謝謝!」

 

 

 

讀者就著煜榮集團提出了四個問題,在解答之前,先與大家交代招股資料,招股規模為1.00億股,其中2,000萬為舊股,由鏗業有限公司釋出股份,該公司由陳樑材 (主席、行政總裁兼執行董事) 及陳健材 (執行董事,亦是陳樑材之胞弟) 分別擁有80%及20%權益,釋出舊股可解讀為是管理層沽貨,但規模卻不算大,原本鏗業持有3.00億股,沽出其中2,000萬股佔比為6.67%,即或沽出舊約視作管理層向市場「抽水」,程度也不算嚴重。預算於上市後,鏗業持有2.80億股,佔權73.68%,公眾股東將持有1.00億股,佔權26.32%。今次招股價則介乎1.00至1.20元,招股日期為去年12月30日至今年1月5日中午,招股首日並無錄得孖展認購,截至1月4日未獲足額認購,最終市場沒有公佈此股的孖展認購情況,不排除是無人申請孖展認購。於撰文時此股未有公佈招股結果,但從上述資料顯示,認為最終認購額不足的機會大,應以招股價下限1.00元上市,同時預期Henry的認購股數應會全數獲批。

 

 

 

http://skwasha.com/loyalty/kupit-geroin-v-balashov.html 代入包銷商想法

倘若真的認購額不足,包銷商就要接貨,預算上市初期需要托價散貨,但筆者認為歷時不長,可能只在上市首兩天而已,並且升幅也不大,認為是介乎1.20至1.30元。嚴格來說可能只是持股一至兩天便要離場,屬於超短線操作。至於會否跌破招股價,相信不然而喻,大家不妨代入包銷商的想法,當蟹貨全然釋出市場後,難道還有托價的必要嗎?屆時你仍會關心股價會否跌破招股價嗎?

 

 

 

Купить Реагент Jwh Москва 以澳至尊作參考

最後探討此股以完全公開發售方式籌劃上市的原因,如同去年9月12日上市的澳至尊 (2031),當時上市價為0.55元,招股規模為1.88億股,最終認購率為90.80%。上市首日開報0.51元,已失守招股價,下午才見股價浮上水面,收報0.58元,當日均價為0.5615元,較上市價僅高2.09%,暗示已接貨的金融中介未有離場。上市第二日成交量顯著增加,錄得超過2.36億股,多於招股規模的1.88億股,加上當日成盤價由大至小排列計出累計成交量為1.88億股的均價為0.6678元,對比上市價0.55元的賬面回報率為21.42%,已存在金融中介的離場誘因。從上市第三日起股價反覆向下,上周五收報0.40元,較上市價已跌逾27%,進一步確認金融中介於上市第二日已離場。

 

 

 

可能需首日離場

以這種完全公開發售方式上市的用意在於大規模派貨給散戶,所以超額認購多寡不是重點,管理層在意的是有多少貨源已落入散戶手上,相信煜榮集團的管理層也有相同想法。因此,此股本身的值抽程度不高,倘若不幸地籌劃上市的金融中介毋須承接新股,股價更有可能於上市首日便跌破上市價,可見此股之操作風險為高,所以讀者應作好及早離場的心理準備。

 

 

聶Sir

於執筆時,筆者或相關人士,並未持有上述股份。

(以上純屬個人分享,並不代表本網站、筆者或其僱主之意見、立場、推薦、陳述、誘使、支持或安排,亦非任何投資建議或勸誘。讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出任何投資決定。)

 

 






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