准财务自由人仕理财方案 #1253

Hello Sir,

Have been visiting your blog and found its exceptionally inspiring. Now taking this to real action and hoping you can shed some lights on my situation.

 

Age of 36, Married, with 2 young kids.

Myself – monthly income around 150k/month. + around 1M bonus annually

My wife – around 80k/month + 600k bonus annually.

 

Our financials are pretty independent. But we do have a join account which got around 5M together (from selling our apartments 3 years ago). I myself have another 4-5M on cash. 1M on hk exchange traded equities / futures , 3M on private equities in US (which can’t be liquidated easily).

 

Household monthly expenditure around 60-80k a month (including 31k apartment rental, 5k car park rental, kids education and such) – whcih we share jointly. Personal another 50K a month going to parents.

 

Not thinking to buy an apartment in hk given a strong likelihood of migrating outside HK in the future (say in 5-10 years). But of course, like many cases that you have seen, wifey typically don’t like rental and would like to own an apartment and also don’t like the fact that paying 31k out a month.

 

Now coming to a time of mid age crisis, thinking about what to do next or even the meaning of life. Talking about dream is easy, but executing that gotta be considering so many angles. Would like to ensure stable cash flow for my family.

 

Considering a private bank account with buying 1M USD bond, hoping to yield 60-80k+ monthly positive cashflow for the family. That would protect basic livings. And with such an amount, renting quite a number of locations would be fairly easy. This gives mobility for young kid school network needs and such.

 

But given interest rate rising expectation , and still general low quality yield (otherwise much higher credit risk), do you have any suggestions on the best way to arrange my asset? Particularly with safe leverage

 

Really appreciate your kind direction. Look forward for your kind reply.  Wish you all the best in 2017

 

ANSWER:

利率上升不影响笔者提及之直债的价值,因笔者运用之债券评级较低,反不受加息影响。见2016年12月美国加息后美国ETF: JNK与TIP的价变相对已述明,或参考上次加息周期2005-07亦助了解。当然详尽解释不在此述,赶紧为读者解难。

 

读者人工在香港固然算高,不过如果纯因钱多而开立私人银行户口,等于将自己放入鲨鱼池。在港做得私银告都拥专业投资者资格,一旦投资出事要追讨证监唔会帮手,要自己同银行打官司兼见报。不少城中名人都因此觉得心烦,何况是读者打工仔一个? 故笔者在blog中提及之所以收息法门,无论是否杠杆都不用开立私银户口先做到。笔者自己亦不会为向私银借钱平0.5%息而将钱电去端士,如阁下是一心想做直债而唔系债基,私银“货架”较为宽敞实在好处,不过在衡量保障法理、直债投资对笔者是否过份保守、加上透明度后,笔者环是将钱简单放系银行买下债基美股算数。

 

 

不少人再问今年是否应该买楼? 换楼? 虽每人或拥特别因素(如你无钱不过有个劲契爷),为求作解列出意见如下:

无楼者: 如买楼后借贷力未用超60%,细细地都买一间,因为无一个人确实知道楼市仲会唔会升,笔者将作的2017楼市评述都只系按数据估计

有1间楼者: 联名有1间楼应搞一拆二按爆再铺定买第二间,要快做因为楼市万一下跌,你唔早将楼按爆收息就见财化水

有2间楼者: 除非再买仍令借贷力未用超60%,否则应按兵不动

有第3间楼: 如其中一间系千万市值的,应减。如是三间都系细楼而借贷力未用超70%,按兵不动

有第4+间楼: 应考虑减磅

 

 

讲返读者,明白那种开始见到财务自由的心情,人生首次开始考虑有钱以后的问题。不过读者比起其他“见到但未到财务自由”的同侪有个大缺点,就系人地是千万在手加至少一层楼(可以系供紧但结欠不应在市价60%以上)系手而佢未有。故先说明佢呢个属“准财务自由”status,是有条件性的,就系起码要留20k现金流比自己租楼。

 

 

那“准财务自由人仕”应该点去投资呢? 同意是保本直债为上,不过如果全副身家倒入直债,过多十几廿年就会因直债派息不会跟通账上升而受害。建议读者唔使再博连100万香港股票都唔好再揸,1千3百万既钱用300万系香港买两间市值450万的屋苑楼收租,首期只比150万净低交比租客供满佢。只要内地管治模式不变,香港仍需作为走资中心。买楼唔一定为住,而是睇中租金同通账一齐升跌那种能力,这是直债、债基、股票同保险都没有。

 

 

净低一千万可利用500万做直债杠杆,例如将大新银行之直债杠杆,2022年保本又之前收成7-8%年息是可以的,长江基建、东亚的prep.都可考虑。但要由1千3百万入面抽成8百万系香港开个私人户口,笔者认为令钱过份集中在一点,此事对读者未系时候。那500万收8%一年已收40万,之前两间楼估计是收租12k/月而供楼10k/月,每间产出2k正现金流,连同直债收40万+4.8万 = 约45万现金/年。

 

最后500万将其150万投入20%一年之债基叠增套餐B方案,一年产出30万利息。再次说明债基是不会因加息而下跌。至于如有金融海啸债基个价都要跌,但对比股票波幅少很多。由于债是有到期保本之特性而股票只系公仔纸,公司有咩事都系赔比债权人先到股份持有者。另50万留黎买一些ETF做对冲,万一中国有咩问题或世界大乱,读者可因呢一著而发大财而对冲了大部份其他风险。最后读者留了300万现金在手,而1000万投资帮佢产出每年45万+30万=75万正现金流,现金流产出效率为7.5%,合理而由达成佢想有60-80K/月现金用之目标。开始想想做什么事情贡献社会。

 

 

顺带一提,读者下步是要努力成立两个资产储存中心,此为更万全之策。

 

最后恳求各位已经“财务自由”或“准财务自由人仕”,留时间为社会作出贡献。人最需要系靠自己努力而获得尊重,捐钱系有帮助,惟未能有效解决问题根源。








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