準財務自由人仕理財方案 #1253

Hello Sir,

Have been visiting your blog and found its exceptionally inspiring. Now taking this to real action and hoping you can shed some lights on my situation.

 

Age of 36, Married, with 2 young kids.

Myself – monthly income around 150k/month. + around 1M bonus annually

My wife – around 80k/month + 600k bonus annually.

 

Our financials are pretty independent. But we do have a join account which got around 5M together (from selling our apartments 3 years ago). I myself have another 4-5M on cash. 1M on hk exchange traded equities / futures , 3M on private equities in US (which can’t be liquidated easily).

 

Household monthly expenditure around 60-80k a month (including 31k apartment rental, 5k car park rental, kids education and such) – whcih we share jointly. Personal another 50K a month going to parents.

 

Not thinking to buy an apartment in hk given a strong likelihood of migrating outside HK in the future (say in 5-10 years). But of course, like many cases that you have seen, wifey typically don’t like rental and would like to own an apartment and also don’t like the fact that paying 31k out a month.

 

Now coming to a time of mid age crisis, thinking about what to do next or even the meaning of life. Talking about dream is easy, but executing that gotta be considering so many angles. Would like to ensure stable cash flow for my family.

 

Considering a private bank account with buying 1M USD bond, hoping to yield 60-80k+ monthly positive cashflow for the family. That would protect basic livings. And with such an amount, renting quite a number of locations would be fairly easy. This gives mobility for young kid school network needs and such.

 

But given interest rate rising expectation , and still general low quality yield (otherwise much higher credit risk), do you have any suggestions on the best way to arrange my asset? Particularly with safe leverage

 

Really appreciate your kind direction. Look forward for your kind reply.  Wish you all the best in 2017

 

ANSWER:

利率上升不影響筆者提及之直債的價值,因筆者運用之債券評級較低,反不受加息影響。見2016年12月美國加息後美國ETF: JNK與TIP的價變相對已述明,或參考上次加息週期2005-07亦助了解。當然詳盡解釋不在此述,趕緊為讀者解難。

 

讀者人工在香港固然算高,不過如果純因錢多而開立私人銀行戶口,等於將自己放入鯊魚池。在港做得私銀告都擁專業投資者資格,一旦投資出事要追討證監唔會幫手,要自己同銀行打官司兼見報。不少城中名人都因此覺得心煩,何況是讀者打工仔一個? 故筆者在blog中提及之所以收息法門,無論是否槓桿都不用開立私銀戶口先做到。筆者自己亦不會為向私銀借錢平0.5%息而將錢電去端士,如閣下是一心想做直債而唔係債基,私銀「貨架」較為寬敞實在好處,不過在衡量保障法理、直債投資對筆者是否過份保守、加上透明度後,筆者環是將錢簡單放係銀行買下債基美股算數。

 

 

不少人再問今年是否應該買樓? 換樓? 雖每人或擁特別因素(如你無錢不過有個勁契爺),為求作解列出意見如下:

無樓者: 如買樓後借貸力未用超60%,細細地都買一間,因為無一個人確實知道樓市仲會唔會升,筆者將作的2017樓市評述都只係按數據估計

有1間樓者: 聯名有1間樓應搞一拆二按爆再鋪定買第二間,要快做因為樓市萬一下跌,你唔早將樓按爆收息就見財化水

有2間樓者: 除非再買仍令借貸力未用超60%,否則應按兵不動

有第3間樓: 如其中一間係千萬市值的,應減。如是三間都係細樓而借貸力未用超70%,按兵不動

有第4+間樓: 應考慮減磅

 

 

講返讀者,明白那種開始見到財務自由的心情,人生首次開始考慮有錢以後的問題。不過讀者比起其他「見到但未到財務自由」的同儕有個大缺點,就係人地是千萬在手加至少一層樓(可以係供緊但結欠不應在市價60%以上)係手而佢未有。故先說明佢呢個屬「準財務自由」status,是有條件性的,就係起碼要留20k現金流比自己租樓。

 

 

那「準財務自由人仕」應該點去投資呢? 同意是保本直債為上,不過如果全副身家倒入直債,過多十幾廿年就會因直債派息不會跟通賬上升而受害。建議讀者唔使再博連100萬香港股票都唔好再揸,1千3百萬既錢用300萬係香港買兩間市值450萬的屋苑樓收租,首期只比150萬淨低交比租客供滿佢。只要內地管治模式不變,香港仍需作為走資中心。買樓唔一定為住,而是睇中租金同通賬一齊升跌那種能力,這是直債、債基、股票同保險都沒有。

 

 

淨低一千萬可利用500萬做直債槓桿,例如將大新銀行之直債槓桿,2022年保本又之前收成7-8%年息是可以的,長江基建、東亞的prep.都可考慮。但要由1千3百萬入面抽成8百萬係香港開個私人戶口,筆者認為令錢過份集中在一點,此事對讀者未係時候。那500萬收8%一年已收40萬,之前兩間樓估計是收租12k/月而供樓10k/月,每間產出2k正現金流,連同直債收40萬+4.8萬 = 約45萬現金/年。

 

最後500萬將其150萬投入20%一年之債基疊增套餐B方案,一年產出30萬利息。再次說明債基是不會因加息而下跌。至於如有金融海嘯債基個價都要跌,但對比股票波幅少很多。由於債是有到期保本之特性而股票只係公仔紙,公司有咩事都係賠比債權人先到股份持有者。另50萬留黎買一些ETF做對沖,萬一中國有咩問題或世界大亂,讀者可因呢一著而發大財而對沖了大部份其他風險。最後讀者留了300萬現金在手,而1000萬投資幫佢產出每年45萬+30萬=75萬正現金流,現金流產出效率為7.5%,合理而由達成佢想有60-80K/月現金用之目標。開始想想做什麼事情貢獻社會。

 

 

順帶一提,讀者下步是要努力成立兩個資產儲存中心,此為更萬全之策。

 

最後懇求各位已經「財務自由」或「準財務自由人仕」,留時間為社會作出貢獻。人最需要係靠自己努力而獲得尊重,捐錢係有幫助,惟未能有效解決問題根源。








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