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Homebloggerhk 按揭 買樓 理財 基金 股票


【聶SIR】難為對象定分界 (2016/10/12)

20161012-3882

 

上周二 (10月4日) 收市後,筆者收到讀者提問:「聶Sir 你好!我從網上搜尋器留意到你有分析配股的股份,最近對 go 天彩控股 (3882) 的配股活動有疑問,公告寫到是配股給獨立投資者,我定性為街外人。另翻查過去一年資料,看到大股東在低位收集此股,那麼我可以理解為今次配股是投資者對公司發展前景有相信而買入股份嗎?希望聶Sir可以抽空回覆,謝謝!」

 

對象似是街外人

由於上周實在有太多讀者提問需要回覆,以致給讀者的回覆也是上周五清晨四時許,當時對此股有如此看法,按9月9日開市前發佈的配股公告顯示,今次配股有配售代理介入,並且承配人不少於六名,讀者將對象定位為「街外人」的觀點可以理解,否則便不用代理介入,毋須支付中介費用,可以提升集資所得淨額。不過從宣佈前一天收報1.16元,較配股價1.05元折讓不足10%,以及從6月至8月均收低於1.00元 (8月31日除外) 來看,配股價之定位應是要讓承配人受惠,不排除有心人已混入承配人之中,存在配股給「自己人」的可能,加上之後股價扶搖直上,上周四收報1.96元,與配股價1.05元比較,約一個月承配人賬面賺超過86%,反映對象屬「自己人」的推測更合理。

 

價升與業績無關

至於承配人認購股的動機是否與憧憬公司發展有關,從公告列出集資用途其二關於業務發展與收購項目,卻沒有具備寫到所需金額,反映用途不夠具體,暫未看到承配人買入股份與公司基本面有關。此外,由於讀者已配股的技財作分析切入點,我認為暫時不用分析公司的基本面,加上從9月19日晚上公司發佈2016年中期報告顯示,今年上半年錄得溢利倒退超過96%,基本面似有惡化跡象,證明股價上揚與業績無關。

 

大股東密密增持

反而值得留意此股的公眾持股佔比偏少,於配股前只有29.41%,接近下限25%維持上市地位的要求,證明股權集中。同時控股股東、主席兼執行董事鄧榮芳於7月19至26日透過場內交易五度增持股份,令佔權從53.15%增至53.83%,合共涉資近480萬元,每日平均作價介乎0.826至0.946元,而且是越買越貴,不排除早已知道股價會上揚。此外,天彩控股為貨源歸邊的股份,觀察中央結算系統 (簡稱CCASS) 資料,於10月6日顯示參與者總數為191名,持有約2.38億股,佔已發行股本28.04%,與上述公眾持股佔比29.41%相若,暗示CCASS所有股份屬公眾股東,全數可視為街貨。

 

貨源歸邊易炒上

而首十名參與者佔總數僅5.24%,卻持有約1.49億股,計出街貨佔比為62.41%,如此股權集中證明屬有心人持貨機會大,又因佔比高於六成,反映貨源已被歸邊,相信這是股價近期可被持續拉升的主因。向Eric回覆時股價為1.96元,當時認為逼近2元的心理關口,只要恆指升勢能持續,股價破項機會大。若能成功收高於此價,可上望至2.50元。而翌日股價已突破2.00元,收報2.08元,看來有利好誘因。

1

基於上述分析,讀者可自行決定是否值得制定適合個人需要的操作策略。

 

聶Sir

 

於執筆時,筆者或相關人士,並未持有上述股份。上述內容給讀者予以參考,絕不構成任何買賣股份建議。

 






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