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[汪敦敬]樓市需留意地皮 會否割價求售 (2016/05/21)

雖然筆者是預測樓市比較準確的評論員,但其實我並不希望我的預測言中的,因為樓價跌,社會會平和一點!做生意亦會開心一點!社會在近年多了不少怨氣!而且,樓價跌反而我們會更多生意,但是,寫評論文章要說實話,無論你喜不喜歡,我也應該要將實際情況反映,否則,我的文章就沒有價值了!

到了現在,我亦無意改變我上年年尾對2016年樓市的預測,即上半年開始有個別板塊找到谷底,而下半年整體住宅市場應該找到谷底了!但是在尋底過程中,樓市局面是顛覆不定的,我必須要與讀者分享我的分析!

 

 

上年10月開始的劈價勢,並沒有令到市場結構性改變!在實際上,因為香港人供滿樓的人是增加了不少!從存款上去看,香港人亦比以前富有(雖然貧富懸殊嚴重了!),但市場上350萬的二手放盤反而大增,算是一個很不錯的成果!多年來,以人均入息中位數字為購買力(兩夫婦計),現在是能買私樓細單位的最接近時刻!

不過,政府樓宇政策的新一波「殺著」,就是將樓花地盤聚焦發放!在屯門區今年可以發售的樓花地盤可以有9個!當中若存在納米樓的話,即是說有理由相信一些樓花有機會不斷推出2百多萬的上車單位!如此多的樓盤及平LUMP SUM價,不可能不衝擊二手市場!

 

 

上次樓花聚焦推出的是元朗及朗屏區!正好配合了當時的劈價勢!今次屯門又會如何?

更加需要留意的是政府會否將地皮割價求售,因為如果行這方向,樓市就有了結構性下跌的基礎,大家都要緊密留意。

 

 

不過,筆者只是忠實說出不同角度的風險,看官就不需要太過擔憂,市場最後由實踐及實踐後的數據去印證一切!眼前我們要面對的是畸形的市場常態及矛盾,「樓市哈佬喂」帶來了甚麼?現實中就是香港人愈來愈富有,卻同時愈來愈多人虛怯!當兩個特性相遇的時候,樓市就變得波譎雲詭了。

購買力愈來愈強橫的情形下,竟然恐慌的人不斷存在!這極可能是一個入市良機!是否,還看你有沒有堅持量力而為的能耐了!

 










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