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屋苑打擂台: 置富花園 vs 海怡半島 – 地鐵站上蓋先要輸!

屋苑打擂台系列為大家找來不同屋苑作出比較,每次比較兩屋苑在過往呎價變幅之差異、持有那者較優、揭示換樓時機,及短於5年的投資期買那者為優勝。

文中各圖像、表格由鍾維傑先生提供、文宇部份由諗sir按情況加入。至於所用呎價源自中原數據。

鍾維傑先生網址: http://www.real-estate-tech.com/

數據時間: 2008/6月至2016年3月

上述期內總升幅: 置富花園 88%, 海怡半島  60%

置富花園 呎價: $5463/呎升至2015年11月的$10253/呎(上升88%)

落成日期: 置富花園 由香港置地。各幢約於1978年落成。海怡半島由和黃發展,1992-95年陸續入伙。

 

From To 海怡半島 置富花園
Jan 2015 Dec 2015 0.78% 9.65%
Jan 2014 Dec 2014 16.52% 18.67%
Jan 2013 Dec 2013 -0.17% 2.28%
Jan 2012 Dec 2012 28.71% 30.98%
Jan 2011 Dec 2011 3.28% 2.77%
Jan 2010 Dec 2010 15.63% 18.70%
Jan 2009 Dec 2009 37.52% 34.99%

 

不少人應無疑選擇海怡呎價跑贏置富花園。海怡樓齡較新、面面向海、更將有地鐵到違。點會輸比遠在深山的置富?

 

見上圖由2009至2012的呎價走勢、實是各有千秋。最能分出勝負、主要是2015年置富一年升9.65%、而海怡呎價近乎不動。走勢差異之原因、在於海怡係2015年不少樓價已升至最起碼700萬一間、而置富500仲有交易。不要少看700萬呢個神奇價碼,你買700萬樓、要280萬首期、要26萬印花稅、如已有樓者要付雙倍稅56萬。呢個數足足夠係海怡租兩年樓。相反買500萬樓、只消100萬首期、15萬印花稅、雙倍30萬。呢個數夠租500萬樓應1.5年。就計首期280萬對不少人而言近無可能、說實香港能隨手拎近300萬cash出黎既朋友為數有限。就當將樓加按埋、都要按盡先有。相比拎100萬、不少阿爸阿阿媽都已為寶貝仔準備好。故500萬附近既樓易找人承接、700萬起跳既樓難搵人承。你見下圖海怡成交多在700-1200萬、而置富低一層。

4

另一原因、是海怡在香港仔一帶屬中高檔屋苑(唔計別墅、別墅同屋苑是兩個不同市場)。而置富在薄扶林一帶很是入門級。樓市在2015年轉向、高檔貨首當其衝。次等貨反而受不少減磅者追捧、跌得較慢。

那邊的樓較好炒?

 

Total Periods = Buy Date [email protected] 22Jun08=1.00 406
海怡半島 > 置富花園 16
      4%
海怡半島 < 置富花園 389
      96%
海怡半島 = 置富花園 1
      0%
Math Check =     406
       
       

 

上圖表為back-test,假設在2008年後每星期有一對買家同時入手兩屋苑( 置富花園海怡半島),那邊買家持有至今的升幅較距大?

結果為2008年至今,置富花園買家在406次中一面倒發生389次比海怡半島高之升幅、而相反海怡半島買家贏有16次。置富花園較好炒。










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