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屋苑打擂台: 陽明山莊 vs 禮頓山 – 豪宅市場觀點

屋苑打擂台系列為大家找來不同屋苑作出比較,每次比較兩屋苑在過往呎價變幅之差異、持有那者較優、揭示換樓時機,及短於5年的投資期買那者為優勝。

文中各圖像、表格由鍾維傑先生提供、有關空置量及供應由差餉物業估價署獲取。文宇部份由諗sir按情況加入。至於所用呎價源自中原數據。

鍾維傑先生網址: http://www.real-estate-tech.com/

數據時間: 2008/6月至2015年11月

上述期內總升幅: 陽明山莊 46%, 禮頓山  40%

 

落成日期: 陽明山莊 由台灣發展商興建,1991年落成、台商僑福企業大股東持有不少單位。近年不少年青人對近代史有興趣、更有人打算移民台灣、那估計對蔣介石的抗日歷史、及蔣公對明朝詩人王陽明有偏好之事早有認知。當年退守台灣、蔣介石在台北附近的一處山頭建舍、將山名為陽明山、而官邸命名為士林。故有些很偏向台灣的字眼、香港作為兩岸三地中的一員、不可不察。

 

禮頓山由新鴻基發展,2002年落成。如果各位記得許仕仁的官司、應不難記得物業由誰發展。

From To 禮頓山 陽明山莊
Jan 2015 Latest shown -6.04% 11.14%
Jan 2014 Dec 2014 9.71% 4.22%
Jan 2013 Dec 2013 -5.43% -14.53%
Jan 2012 Dec 2012 -0.59% 32.98%
Jan 2011 Dec 2011 18.53% -4.97%
Jan 2010 Dec 2010 22.51% 29.29%
Jan 2009 Dec 2009 29.80% 15.62%

陽明山莊升得多過禮頓山、惟7年夾埋先升多6%、聊勝於無。由於陽明山莊及禮頓山成交價碼一般在2500港幣之上、此相信是其一原因令成交宗數偏低。過去一年、陽明山莊共有27宗成交、而禮頓山有7宗。結論是成交宗數少、令將兩屋苑每年的升跌作比較未具代表性。相反想講講、香港未來的豪宅市場走勢怎樣? 筆者未有能力入手豪宅、只能在數據上作些剖析。

 

假設我地今日買間2500萬豪宅、未計雙倍印花稅、就當單份的已要繳付106萬stamp duty。我地睇睇禮頓山租金、基本上60000/月已可租到單位、足足是單份印花稅的18倍。亦即表示如果有人想住禮頓山,單計買入單位需要比既稅已夠佢地租住單位18個月、何況一般豪宅買家本身都有住宅在身、比稅要雙稅? 係買入洗費已夠你租樓三年有突之情況下、好少人會因純想住而買入豪宅。若買家除了想住之外、看中了禮頓山/陽明山莊的投資價值、此說法亦為不妥。除非買家數口極唔精、唔知道香港樓價在2008-2015同期、基本上升超100%以上、遠比此兩屋苑的40%餘高。

 

發展商亦睇到豪宅需度飽和之象、根據差估處資料(見下圖)、未來兩年超1000呎實用面積的供應遠比細過1000呎的單位少、而超1000呎單位的空置率很高(一般超9%)、相信市場有排都未消化到仲「擺住係度」的大單位、又或是豪宅。留意真豪宅、基本上開則都唔會小於1000呎面積的。若看倌打算買市值1500萬以上單位、考慮到豪宅租務回報低、加上管理費貴、不妨轉做租客。真買樓可選擇供應稀少的地區及單位類型、這在買樓003再探究。

5

 

那邊的樓較好炒?

 

假設在2008年後每星期有一對買家同時入手兩屋苑,那邊買家持有至今的升幅較距大?

 

下圖有結果: 2008年至今,禮頓山買家在389次中發生111次比 陽明山莊賺多之情況、而相反 陽明山莊賺多有277次。兩者相比買陽明山莊有噱頭。

Total Periods = 389
禮頓山 > 陽明山莊 111
29%
禮頓山 < 陽明山莊 277
71%
禮頓山 = 陽明山莊 1
0%
Math Check = 389









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