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利率正常化下該投資什麼

 

美聯儲加息,望可鞏固市場信心同時刺激經濟,雖加息後基準利率仍未能立刻回復到百分之零點四的正常水平,市場對美國落實加息的反應還是良好的。議息聲明公報後美股雖看似不無波動,三大指數卻皆以強勢收市,道指以升224點收市,亞歐與華爾街同時向好。

 

記者會上聯儲局主席耶倫仍能從容面對,看來對加息政策帶來的後續反應有信心。美國失業率向來不低,上月處於百分之五的水平,勞工市場參與率雖未見大改變,但比起五年前每六個人相爭一份工的情況,現在每一點五個人爭一個空缺職位,失業情況明顯有大改善。

 

美國就業市場雖明顯比以往活力充沛絕,經濟復甦的條件和狀況卻未必全面。上個月,製造業採購經理指數(PMI) 只有48.6,跌穿法好淡分界線,為三年來最差成績。

 

根據美國以往的「零息時代」,PMI每次降至目前水平聯儲局都會以量化寬鬆(QE)應對,然而耶偏卻相反地收緊銀根,反映她對就業帶動經濟頗俱信心,相信就業改善有能力抵消製造業疲態。

 

聯儲局決策者們的一個決定終結了七年的「零息時代」,耶倫表示,過往曾因聯儲局決策者行動太遲加息導致扼殺經濟增長,落實後再追加結果引致市場動盪。耶倫對市場看好,也為免重蹈往日覆轍迅速落實加息,可是以宏觀經濟條件來說,環球經過不振尤其新興國家經濟復蘇遲緩、商品價格「深不見底」、美股位高勢危埋隱患增避需求、垃圾債基金問題不斷等,都反映加息後環境未必能如耶倫所想般樂觀。

 

 

 

眾所周知,銀行以借短貸來長賺息差,惟現時長息低於短息,此情況估計不會持久。零八年後美國政府已規管銀行持有的垃圾債規模,這樣看來加息買銀行股似乎也無往而不利,除非美國經濟當真如耶倫所想樂觀。相反,那些在QE被逐步結束和聯儲局大力鼓吹加息期間愛壓的股票或投資工具反在美國落實加息後更值得考慮。

 

此外,發現房托(REITS)與五年期美債的孳息率關連性近零,似乎加息不利房托之說不見根據,下方兩隻房托有關的ETF或可大派用場。派息在11-15%,留意當中價格風險亦與港的REITS近同。

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