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[汪敦敬]從實際數字 探討樓市真面目

08年金融海嘯後,最能準備預測及反映到樓市實況的數據不是指數,因為大多數的指數只能反映成交銀碼,未能夠準確反映消費者的流動,例如09年之後300萬以下的私樓在各區逐漸走向絕跡,一些本來百多萬的單位升值以倍數計,這些趨勢是指數看不到的,我認為評估樓市必須參考二手樓放盤量,因為二手樓放盤量除了可以反映比一手樓花更影響大的供應之外,更加變相是業主賣樓的情緒商數,業主若普遍不想賣樓,在指數上看不到,在放盤量上就可以反映到出來了!

我們就來分享一下放盤量最近的戲劇性變化!

9月份甚至屯門區400萬或以下的二手放盤量大增,單單一個月大增了12%!最令人關注的就是租盤量的上升!租一向都是樓價的有力支持!租價在9月份共下跌了9.2%!但是這個情況是否長遠呢?我們看看10月!10月頭7天所見二手放盤量相對上月呈現了打橫的趨勢!當中也包括了租盤更停止了增加!這顯示到樓價趨勢尚未確定!

 

 

未命名

屯門樓市呎價領先指數 (■代表實用面積 , ■代表建築面積)

 

我們再從統計學去探討,我找了我們數據統計部在學術上去探討!如果我們假設放盤量增加樓價就增加了下跌壓力,而放盤量減少樓價就增加上升壓力的話,我們看見屯門區低於400 萬的二手放盤量(843個)是未超越12個月的移動平均線(907個)!就算超越了,樓價在一段時間內都只是打橫,就再超越有關平均線的上軌「壓力線」(1149個),400萬以下樓價才算是調頭向下,那即是說放盤量仍未脫離下跌軌跡!那即是說現在評估樓價大跌言之過早!消費者要留心數據然後自己去判斷,不要看一兩個數據或者新聞消息便妄下判斷,這樣其實是很大的風險的!

的確,市場有不少破頂價出現,但當中亦有新高價及次高價成交,樓市結構性並沒有大改變!

樓價調節和「爆煲」是兩回事,也和拾級而下不同。

樓價升跌決定於買家及業主的實力博奕。

 










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