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[市場先生] 息口長期壓低非好事 (副題: 簡評898萬事昌中期業績)

筆者認為美國早加息好過遲加, 但基於外部因素的考慮, 上星期聯儲局決定維持利率不變. 但不加息對市場不一定是好事, 上星期五收市美國道指和標普500指數分別下跌1.74%和1.62%. 自2008年12月聯邦基金基準利率維持於接近零水平以來, 已經接近7年時間, 利率水平之低以及維持時間之久是歷無前例. 利率水平人為地被壓低, 其實是對資金擁有者的剝削, 對放貸人來講, 利率是借出資金所獲得的報酬率. 利率過份不合理地被壓低不一定是好事, 近年銀行持續削減開支的其中一個原因是淨息差普遍收窄導致利息收入增長乏力. 依賴定息收入的退休人士也身受低利率之害, 只好減少消費支出. 低利率本應刺激企業借貸, 但企業將借回來的平錢用來回購自己的股份, 收縮股本而非擴張業務.超低利率令資金得不到應有回報並造成惡性循環.
 
今次簡評萬事昌(898)中期業績. 集團有以下資產和業務:
 
1. 帳面值65.92億元的投資物業, 主要包括位於九龍上海街的萬事昌中心, 總建築面積有46,351平方呎; 位於九龍寶勒巷的萬事昌廣場, 總建築面積有61,269平方呎, 位於香港仔興和街的大生工業大廈, 總建築面積有81,720平方呎; 以及在上海擁有182幢酒店式服務別墅及132個酒店式服務住宅單位. 期內租金收入以及管理費收入分別有9,704.9萬元(下跌1.8%)和1,211.9萬元(增加20.7%). 內地經濟放緩以及外資撤離中國對集團上海出租業務帶來壓力. 集團位於黃竹坑道的舊總部大樓已完成地基工程, 一幢30層高的新大樓預期於2017至2018年落成, 租金收入短期缺乏增長空間.
 
2. 證券投資: 集團持有帳面值9.02億元的高流動性股權投資, 以及2.24億元的可供出售已上市債券投資. 受惠上半年美國經濟好轉以及內地刺激經濟政策, 股票市場錄得不俗升幅, 股權投資公平值收益大增29倍至1.086億元, 以及股息收入385.2萬元. 債券投資帶來利息收入605萬元, 但同時錄得公平值淨虧損601.9萬元. 然而, 下半股票市場急轉直下, 預期對集團的證券投資業務有不利影響.
 
3. 集團持有現金及銀行存款2.92億元, 計息銀行及其他借貸有12.29億元, 淨借貸9.37億元, 上半年融資成本1,285.8萬元.
 

 

集團每股資產淨值1.172元, 以現價0.325元計算, 市帳率只有0.277倍, 歷史股息率有3.85%, 過去3年股息持續增加. 建議管理層減少證券投資, 以償還銀行部分借貸. 股價近期弱勢相信是反映投資市場動盪對證券投資業務的憂慮. 現價估值便宜, 但需要耐心等待2,3年才有更好收成.













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