部署退休的步驟與分析 #714

Hi Lum Sir,

I am 35 and married with 2 young kids (both under 4 yo). My monthly base income is $123K x 13 mths(guaranteed). My spouse is a house wife so we can assume no income on her end. I currently own the following assets (all in HKD):

1. 2BR Apartment in Sha Tin – parent use – Under wife name only but I am the guarantor and borrower, purchased for $2.1M in 2011, currently worth $3.1M, mortgage outstanding $1.76M, monthly repayment is $6800.

2. 3BR Apartment in Sha Tin – current dwelling – Under my name only,
purchased for $5.8M in 2012, 90%-mortgaged, currently worth $7M, mortgage outstanding $5.1M, monthly repayment is $20K

3. 2BR Apartment in Tai Wai – rental unit – Under my name only, purchased for
$2.92M in 2013, 70%-mortgaged, currently worth $3M, rented out for $9200 per month, mortgage outstanding $2M, monthly repayment is $7500.

4. Tokyo Apartment through JP Housing – Under my name only, Purchased
for $480K in 2014, no mortgage, currently rented out at 8% net ROI.

5. HK and US stocks worth a total of $2.7M, can be cashed out any time
for more favourable investment opportunities.

6. Retirement savings all in US stocks worth $1M (tax-sheltered under age 65 similar to MPF but in Canada).

7. Very little cash on-hand ($50 – 100K).

My monthly household expense is about $70K so I can save at $50K each month before tax. I would like to retire as soon as possible (hopefully at age 40 – 45). How should I re-juggle my investments to achieve this goal?

 answer:

讀者用英文問,筆者照答的。在多事之秋的今天假期大家睇睇呢位月入123,000,手上有3間香港樓加一間日本樓既朋友點去為自己退休打算。

 –

讀者目標係退休,即街上不時有人走埋黎同你「傾」既問題。當然街上那位人兄無論點計劃都好,最尾都係sell個plan比你儲錢。看似十分合理,但常人能作的儲備根本唔夠退休的,因為不少香港人成世搵到既錢其實不難計到。就當一個月入$30000的打工仔,工作約30年,那畢生辛勞可得$30000*12*30 = $10,800,000,即搵埋未夠洗費只約一千萬,明顯唔夠用。亦因此保險公司會想同你「計一計」,只要再拍埋通賬入條數佢計出黎條數一家大到無論,而藥方就係你乖乖做計劃儲錢。

 –

其實計劃退休可用樓房及其實收息品,只要產出每月正現金流等同你的每月人工,你即達成財務自由。一般人用產出現金流去理財可劃分幾個階段:

  1. 產出正現金流等同個人每月支出
  2. 產出正現金流等同個人每月總收入
  3. 產出正現金流等同總收入更和通賬掛勾

 –

有報導採訪「有錢」但都去「執紙皮」既阿婆,背後道理不難明白。阿婆有幾百萬係手但見通賬下銀紙越不見使,加上唔知自己幾時「拜拜」,所以有錢係銀行都要做下野去幫補下。阿婆應是完成了上述「階段一」但未有晉成至「階段三」既人。

 –

那讀者現時情況? 沙田兩房父母用,未有租金收入。3.1mil市值尚欠1.76mil。沙田三房自己住,都未有租金收入。大圍樓有租收,月收$9200供樓$7500,即正現金流為$1700。日本樓8%年租,即月收$3200。香港加美股2.7mil而手上現金很少量。係股票根本不是好收息物之判斷下,讀者每用洗費$70,000,而月總正現金流為$3200+1700 = $4900。讀者現時35歲,如跟此進度去部署退休,明顯落後。

 –

當然十年過後,沙田兩房有可能收回、按揭又再供了大半,產出正現金流為約現市值之4%,即$10,333。由於樓房租金收入會隨通賬升跌,所以租金可用現值計算。另大圍樓到時供了十年,相信重按可令月供款落少一半至7500/2,而正現金流提供至9200-7500/2 ~ $6000。那再加上日本樓(其實用海外物業計劃退休令人負上兌匯風險,令計算更難),到時月總正現金流為$10333+6000+3200 = $19533,都只及他的每月洗費之19533/70000 = 28%

 –

加上讀者其中兩間樓都分別在2012及2013年買入,賺價明顯不深。現在讀者家庭借貸力為$123,000*(13/12)/10000*50%*2.59 = 17.5mil。現已借5.1mil+1.76mil+2.0mil = 8.86mil,即借貸力已用8.86/17.5 = 50.6%,在旺市借貸力只用一半係正確。亦由於讀者賺價淺令其不好應付樓市下跌成為負資產的情況,所以現不好再買樓。只好講他早前的置業策略,只係好無組織咁買入。

 –

係研究過讀者情況後,已說明什麼不應做,及個人情況究竟係點。大家都可試將自己情況比一比較。由於再寫落去只對讀者一位有利而對眾讀者不利,回文亦己達千字。係呢位讀者工資明顯比其他朋友高既情況之下,筆者決定免費答案提點至此。










本網站所包含或提供的資料或材料僅為提供信息,並根本不打算令閣下根據這資料來作交易或投資之用。
對於網站上傳輸的任何資料或材料的正確性、實用性或可獲得性,本網站不承擔任何責任。
對於任何基於此類資料或材料所作的交易或投資決定,本網站也不承擔任何責任。

承印人:Home Concept Group Limited

地址:尖沙咀金巴利道35號金巴利中心13樓03室